The Effect of Parole

William Arbour Lecture
Friday, February 27, 2026, from 11:45 a.m. to 1:00 p.m.
Room C-4141, Lionel-Groulx Pavilion, Université de Montréal, and on Zoom.

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Abstract:

In this article, we estimate the effect of parole in Quebec on recidivism by exploiting the random assignment of commissioners to parole hearings. Parole increases returns to custody due to violations of release conditions, but reduces convictions for new offenses. To better assess the overall effect, we decompose the impact on time served into different mechanisms. We find that, despite an increase in returns to prison, parole shortens total time incarcerated compared to serving the full sentence, without increasing the risk of new offenses.

Biography:

William Arbour is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the Université de Montréal. His research focuses on crime, public policy, and labor economics. He uses applied econometrics and administrative data to inform public decision-making in the areas of security and justice.