Comparing Crime Across Different Populations: How Should We Do It?

Lecture by Rémi Boivin
Monday, November 16, 2026, from 1:00 to 2:00 p.m.
Théâtre de poche (POL-2113), Université Laval

Registration required for in-person attendance

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Abstract

The crime rate is by far the most widely recognized aggregate indicator of crime. It is typically calculated by dividing the number of crimes recorded in a given location or during a specific period by the size of the resident population. Crime rates are widely used because they allow comparisons between units with different population sizes. For instance, is crime more prevalent in Montréal (with approximately 2 million inhabitants) or in Saint-Hyacinthe (with a population of approximately 60,000)?

While the per capita crime rate accounts for differences in population size, it assumes that the demographic composition of the populations being compared (in terms of age, sex, and other characteristics) is similar. However, demographic research has demonstrated for decades that this assumption does not hold. One well-documented example is population aging. In other words, the proportion of individuals under the age of 25 is lower today than it was 50 or 60 years ago.

This demographic shift is particularly relevant because numerous criminological studies have shown that younger individuals are more likely to be involved in crime, whether as offenders or victims. Logically, a smaller proportion of young people should translate into fewer criminal offences. Indeed, police-reported crime in Canada reached a historic low in the early 2010s. But can this decline be explained simply as a mechanical consequence of demographic change?

This presentation draws on police-reported crime data from 2016—the year of Canada's last pre-pandemic census—to compare crime across 233 Canadian police jurisdictions. These jurisdictions, which may encompass multiple municipalities, differ not only in population size but also in demographic composition. The presentation also examines how these differences influence observed crime patterns.

Biography

Rémi Boivin